FUNDACIÓN VÍCTIMAS DEL TERRORISMO 95 - ENGLISH

73 INTERNATIONAL The evolution of the Islamic State rein- forces this trend. Although the orga- nization maintains a global presence, its activity is gradually shifting toward Sub-Saharan Africa. Attacks linked to the group declined in the Middle East and North Africa. In Sub-Saharan coun- tries, however, they virtually doubled, consolidating the region as the main area of expansion for jihadist terrorism. The persistence of large areas with limi- ted state presence, institutional weak- ness, and difficulties in guaranteeing security continue to favor the establish- ment and expansion of extremist organi- zations in many African territories. RADICALIZED YOUNG PEOPLE Youth radicalization is of particular con- cern to experts. Forty-two percent of terro- rism-related investigations in Europe and North America involve minors or young people. This is a process accelerated by onli- ne propaganda and algorithms and, in some cases, may develop in a matter of weeks. In the West, factors such as social iso- lation and continuous exposure to ex- tremist content in digital environments play a role. In Sub-Saharan Africa, by contrast, human rights abuses stand out as the main trigger. Even so, most attempts involving minors are neutralized, with a 97% failure rate compared with 68% among adults. Radicalization is not the only phenome- non concerning analysts. During 2025 there was also an increase in politically or ideologically motivated violence. Such attacks grew by nearly 20%, and South America accounted for 75% of deaths as- sociated with this type of terrorism. In Western countries, although overall incidence remains lower than in other regions, the number of deaths rose by 280%, reaching 57 fatalities. This increa- se was influenced by several mass-casual- ty attacks, including the truck attack in New Orleans, which killed fourteen peo- ple, and the armed attack at Bondi Beach, Australia, with fifteen fatalities. A THREAT IN TRANSFORMATION The Index also highlights the growing role of lone actors in Western countries. Over the past five years, 93% of fatal attacks recorded in these societies were committed by individuals acting inde- pendently and without formal integra- tion into terrorist organizations. This profile represents one of the main challenges for security services. In addi- tion to being harder to detect, lone actors are three times more likely to carry out a successful attack than groups or cells made up of more than two people. Another trend observed in 2025 is the concentration of violence in border areas. Forty-one percent of attacks took 42% of terrorism investigations in Europe and North America involve minors or young people place within fifty kilometers of an inter- national border. The most affected areas were the Colombia-Venezuela border, the corridor between Afghanistan and Pakis- tan, the tri-border area shared by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, and the Lake Chad basin. Although the global balance for 2025 shows a significant reduction in victims and attacks, the report considers that the terrorist threat continues to evol- ve. The expansion of jihadist activity in Africa, growing youth radicalization, the prominence of lone actors, and the concentration of violence in border spaces draw a complex scenario for the coming years. This is compounded by rising interna- tional tensions. The joint military ope- ration launched by the United States and Israel against Iran in early 2026 and the subsequent Iranian response, through attacks against Israel and US allies in the region, have increased the risk of attacks linked to affiliated or- ganizations in the Middle East and in Western countries. Although the 2025 data show improve- ment, the report warns that factors such as political polarization, hate speech, regional conflicts, and online radicaliza- tion continue to feed the terrorist threat. It therefore considers it premature to speak of a consolidated change in trend at the global level.